Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
